Rockstar game's announcement on the release date of GTA VI to be postponed to 2026

GTA VI released in 2025 is one polymarket was overturned in an instant:

polymarket_gta_vi_released_in_2025.png

It had been prevalently believed that Rockstar games would release GTA VI within 2025 according to their previous leak. But all of the sudden Rockstar games posted an announcement, saying it will be released in 2026:

rockstar_games_announcement.png

According to the Twitter API, the created_at of the announcement was Fri May 02 11:25:01 +0000 2025, which translates to:

Trying to trace back to announcement_time - 2 hrs < announcement_time < announcement_time + 10 hours gives this result:

Now I got super curious how the market was able to react even before the official announcement, so I wanted to see if there were other earlier sources of information that became publicly available.

Rockstar Games official announcement on its website has <time datetime="5/2/25, 11:25 AM">May 2, 2025</time> in its HTML, so it's the same time as the announcement on Twitter.

These two should really be the only reliable, official sources, so I don't know how some others were able to catch the information five minutes before the public announcement.

But I also checked their Instagram, Youtube, Facebook, ... but no earlier sources than 11:25 AM were found.

Came across some other unofficial sources though:

But anyways, I concluded for now that early movement we saw might have been a part of usual market activity. "Yes" dropping to 50% range was not abnormal, as it happened multiple times before, like on Apr 8:

apr_8_reversal.png

Conclusion

The amazing part is that it took almost 5 minutes for the market to make a significant reversal in the movement.

So we can conclude that while it takes just a few seconds for the public to come trade on very deterministic markets like the ones regarding BTC price change, it takes a longer while - 5 minutes - for the traders come trade, which leaves room for automated systems to operate to make profits.

For example, if you could make a system that monitors sources that would give information on GTA release date such as Rockstar Game's official Twitter account feeds and then subsequently alerts you or even automatically purchases the relevant market on Polymarket, that'd be an instant profit. But the problem still remains, as it is not 'cheap' to maintain the monitoring system by connecting to various data sources.

This research is an ongoing initiative run by Joel. Join the community for more: